Oct 22, 2026 · 4:45 PM UTC · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Marseille opened as the favorite at 2.01 (+101) and drifted to 2.23 (+123). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Sturm Graz 27% → 30%, draw 26% → 27%, Marseille 47% → 43%. The Asian handicap moved from Sturm Graz +0.5 to Sturm Graz +0.25. The total moved up from 2.75 to 3. The sharpest single move came 60 minutes before kickoff: Marseille went from 53% to 46% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Sturm Graz
3.57 (+257)
3.22 (+222)
Draw
3.66 (+266)
3.65 (+265)
Marseille
2.01 (+101)
2.23 (+123)
Asian handicap
Sturm Graz +0.5 · 1.84 (-119)
Sturm Graz +0.25 · 1.96 (-104)
Total
O/U 2.75 · over 1.89 (-112)
O/U 3 · over 1.94 (-106)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Sturm Graz
Total (over/under)
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