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⚽ Soccer Brazil - Serie A Final

Bahia vs Sao Paulo — odds movement

Oct 29, 2026 · 12:30 AM UTC · 494 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 494 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Bahia opened as the favorite at 2.02 (+102) and shortened to 1.92 (-109). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Bahia 47% → 50%, draw 27% → 26%, Sao Paulo 26% → 24%. The Asian handicap held at Bahia -0.5 the whole way. The total moved up from 2.5 to 2.75.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Bahia2.02 (+102)1.92 (-109)
Draw3.57 (+257)3.76 (+276)
Sao Paulo3.64 (+264)4.06 (+306)
Asian handicapBahia -0.5 · 2.03 (+103)Bahia -0.5 · 1.92 (-109)
TotalO/U 2.5 · over 1.83 (-120)O/U 2.75 · over 2.05 (+105)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
19%31%44%56%Bahia 50%Draw 26%Sao Paulo 24%
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (-0.5)
Total (over/under)
2.52.752.5 → 2.75

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