Oct 28, 2026 · 7:45 PM UTC · 638 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 638 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 40 min before kickoff. Napoli opened as the favorite at 1.81 (-123) and shortened to 1.72 (-139). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Monza 23% → 20%, draw 24% → 24%, Napoli 53% → 56%. The Asian handicap held at Monza +0.75 the whole way. The total stayed at 2.75.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Monza
4.19 (+319)
4.88 (+388)
Draw
4.06 (+306)
4.06 (+306)
Napoli
1.81 (-123)
1.72 (-139)
Asian handicap
Monza +0.75 · 1.85 (-117)
Monza +0.75 · 2.00 (+100)
Total
O/U 2.75 · over 1.95 (-105)
O/U 2.75 · over 1.89 (-112)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (+0.75)
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.75)
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