Oct 24, 2026 · 12:30 PM UK · 632 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 632 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Manchester City opened as the favorite at 1.68 (-148) and shortened to 1.62 (-162). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Aston Villa 20% → 19%, draw 22% → 22%, Manchester City 58% → 60%. The Asian handicap moved from Aston Villa +0.75 to Aston Villa +1. The total moved up from 3 to 3.25.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Aston Villa
4.75 (+375)
5.18 (+418)
Draw
4.37 (+337)
4.49 (+349)
Manchester City
1.68 (-148)
1.62 (-162)
Asian handicap
Aston Villa +0.75 · 2.07 (+107)
Aston Villa +1 · 1.89 (-112)
Total
O/U 3 · over 1.85 (-118)
O/U 3.25 · over 1.87 (-115)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Aston Villa
Total (over/under)
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