Oct 31, 2026 · 3:00 PM UK · 641 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 641 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 45 min before kickoff. Manchester City opened as the favorite at 1.66 (-151) and drifted to 1.77 (-130). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Manchester City 58% → 55%, draw 21% → 23%, Brighton 21% → 22%. The Asian handicap held at Manchester City -0.75 the whole way. The total stayed at 3.25. The sharpest single move came 21 h 25 min before kickoff: Manchester City went from 58% to 57% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Manchester City
1.66 (-151)
1.77 (-130)
Draw
4.58 (+358)
4.23 (+323)
Brighton
4.61 (+361)
4.37 (+337)
Asian handicap
Manchester City -0.75 · 1.83 (-120)
Manchester City -0.75 · 1.98 (-102)
Total
O/U 3.25 · over 1.86 (-116)
O/U 3.25 · over 2.06 (+106)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (-0.75)
Total · no change in the recorded window (3.25)
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