Scan with your phone camera Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar — odds movement
Oct 31, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC · 485 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 485 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Ajax opened as the favorite at 1.64 (-156) and drifted to 1.80 (-125). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Ajax 58% → 54%, draw 21% → 22%, AZ Alkmaar 21% → 24%. The Asian handicap moved from Ajax -1 to Ajax -0.75. The total moved down from 3.5 to 3.25. The sharpest single move came 11 h 25 min before kickoff: Ajax went from 57% to 54% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
| First snapshot | Latest | |
| Ajax | 1.64 (-156) | 1.80 (-125) |
| Draw | 4.61 (+361) | 4.40 (+340) |
| AZ Alkmaar | 4.44 (+344) | 4.00 (+300) |
| Asian handicap | Ajax -1 · 2.04 (+104) | Ajax -0.75 · 2.01 (+101) |
| Total | O/U 3.5 · over 1.94 (-106) | O/U 3.25 · over 1.86 (-116) |
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
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The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.
Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).