Oct 18, 2026 · 6:45 PM UTC · 640 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 640 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 35 min before kickoff. Lyon opened as the favorite at 1.69 (-145) and drifted to 1.81 (-124). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Lyon 57% → 54%, draw 23% → 24%, Nice 20% → 22%. The Asian handicap moved from Lyon -0.75 to Lyon -0.5. The total stayed at 2.75. The sharpest single move came 31 h 10 min before kickoff: Lyon went from 57% to 55% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Lyon
1.69 (-145)
1.81 (-124)
Draw
4.22 (+322)
3.97 (+297)
Nice
4.81 (+381)
4.44 (+344)
Asian handicap
Lyon -0.75 · 1.89 (-113)
Lyon -0.5 · 1.82 (-122)
Total
O/U 2.75 · over 1.84 (-119)
O/U 2.75 · over 1.88 (-114)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Lyon
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.75)
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The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.