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🏀 Basketball NBA Final

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat — odds movement

Oct 28, 2026 · 7:10 PM ET · 239 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 239 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 20 h 50 min before tip-off. Atlanta Hawks opened as the favorite at 1.64 (-157) and drifted to 1.77 (-130). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Atlanta Hawks 59% → 55%, Miami Heat 41% → 45%. The spread moved from Atlanta Hawks -3.5 to Atlanta Hawks -2. The total moved up from 239.5 to 241.5. The sharpest single move came 14 h 60 min before tip-off: Miami Heat went from 44% to 41% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Atlanta Hawks1.64 (-157)1.77 (-130)
Miami Heat2.39 (+139)2.18 (+118)
spreadAtlanta Hawks -3.5 · 1.94 (-106)Atlanta Hawks -2 · 1.93 (-107)
TotalO/U 239.5 · over 1.89 (-112)O/U 241.5 · over 1.91 (-110)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
37%46%54%63%Atlanta Hawks 55%Miami Heat 45%
spread · Atlanta Hawks
-3.5-3-2.5-2-3.5 → -2
Total (over/under)
239.5241.5242239.5 → 241.5

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).