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🏀 Basketball NBA Final

Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons — odds movement

Oct 23, 2026 · 8:10 PM ET · 480 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 480 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 41 h 15 min before tip-off. The favorite flipped: Miami Heat opened favored at 1.72 (-138), but by the last snapshot Detroit Pistons was the favorite at 1.83 (-120). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Miami Heat 56% → 46%, Detroit Pistons 44% → 54%. The spread moved from Miami Heat -2.5 to Miami Heat +1.5. The total moved down from 236.5 to 235. The sharpest single move came 40 h 5 min before tip-off: Miami Heat went from 56% to 54% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Miami Heat1.72 (-138)2.11 (+111)
Detroit Pistons2.22 (+122)1.83 (-120)
spreadMiami Heat -2.5 · 1.93 (-108)Miami Heat +1.5 · 2.00 (+100)
TotalO/U 236.5 · over 1.93 (-107)O/U 235 · over 1.93 (-107)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
41%47%53%59%Miami Heat 46%Detroit Pistons 54%
spread · Miami Heat
-2.5-2-1.5+1+1.5-2.5 → +1.5
Total (over/under)
235235.5236236.5237.5238236.5 → 235

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).