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🏀 Basketball NBA Final

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors — odds movement

Oct 26, 2026 · 10:10 PM ET · 395 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 395 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 33 h 50 min before tip-off. Denver Nuggets opened as the favorite at 1.49 (-205) and shortened to 1.37 (-267). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Denver Nuggets 64% → 71%, Golden State Warriors 36% → 29%. The spread moved from Denver Nuggets -5 to Denver Nuggets -7. The total moved up from 231.5 to 236.5. The sharpest single move came 32 h 40 min before tip-off: Denver Nuggets went from 67% to 69% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Denver Nuggets1.49 (-205)1.37 (-267)
Golden State Warriors2.70 (+170)3.32 (+232)
spreadDenver Nuggets -5 · 1.93 (-107)Denver Nuggets -7 · 1.89 (-112)
TotalO/U 231.5 · over 1.92 (-109)O/U 236.5 · over 1.96 (-104)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
19%40%60%81%Denver Nuggets 71%Golden State Warriors 29%
spread · Denver Nuggets
-8-7.5-7-6.5-5.5-5-5 → -7
Total (over/under)
231.5232.5233.5234234.5235.5231.5 → 236.5

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).